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Wednesday, February 15, 2012

2012 Republican Delegate Count, Popular Vote Totals


Rick Santorum's Colorado and Missouri caucus wins put a nice dent in Mitt Romney's aura of inevitability, but didn't come close to overtaking him in the delegate count.

On the other hand, he has just 87 of 1,144 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination, with more than 80 percent of the U.S. still awaiting a chance to be heard.
Take away Florida's winner-take-all primary - one of only two such races so far - and his total would be even less impressive. Take a look at the delegate count so far:
Delegates 2/8
The "non-binding" states allow their delegates, or a portion of them, to change their minds regardless of the election results, though they are unlikely to do so.
Some delegates are also "unpledged," meaning they are not tied to election results, which is why not all of the totals in the table above (by Real Clear Politics) add up.
Jon Huntsman won two delegates in New Hampshire, but is no longer in the race. As for the first contest, Iowa, CNN offers a different tabulation altogether.
It's confusing, to say the least, but offers an indication of where things are headed after last night, and looking ahead to the Super Tuesday elections on March 6.
Missouri's primary yesterday was non-official, so it is not included above. That state holds its caucus March 17, at which point delegates will actually be awarded.
Maine's caucuses are a week-long affair, concluding this Sunday. Arizona and Michigan are the next primaries on the Republican schedule, both set for February 28.
Washington votes March 3, with Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio, Alaska, Virginia, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Idaho, Massachusetts and Vermont all casting ballots March 6.
Below is the aggregate and state-by-state popular vote as of today. By this measure, Romney's lead is even less significant, as he's won well under half the votes:
Pop. Vote 2/8
The question remains: Can Santorum, Newt Gingrich and/or Ron Paul mount a serious offensive in the coming weeks that will make this a race beyond March 6?
Right now, it's still wide open, but with hundreds of delegates up for grabs on or before that date, a Romney sweep could finally propel him ahead of the field.
He would still be a long way from clinching the Republican presidential nomination, but from a financial and momentum standpoint, that may be his opponents' last stand.
If no candidate makes it to 1,144 by the end of the primary season this summer, the winner would be brokered/decided at the Republican National Convention.
Wouldn't that be something ...


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